Nigeria one of the six (6) countries that will be doomed if oil prices continue to fall.
For governments in oil-exporting countries to meet their
spending commitments they need oil to remain above a certain price. With oil
prices under $87 a barrel, countries that rely on high oil prices, including
Venezuela, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, may have a reason to be concerned.
If the price remains depressed, these countries will either
be forced to borrow more to cover the shortfall in oil tax revenues or
backtrack on spending promises. Cutting back on spending pledges would be
highly embarrassing for these countries' governments.
Saudi Arabia is prepared to sell oil as low as $80 for two
years in order to curb competition from the United States, but how far Saudi
Arabia can let prices fall without incurring too much domestic pain? In
September, the International Monetary Fund warned that Saudi Arabia would run a
deficit of roughly 1.4 percent in 2015.
The problem for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries is that it may no longer be able to control prices (as it has in the
past) to avoid these problems.
Previously, OPEC members would agree to cut oil production
if falling prices posed a threat. That may now have changed because of the
shale oil boom in the US, which has dramatically increased supply.
Falling prices are of particular concern to Russia. Russia
needs high oil prices to buoy its economy. The country has seen its economic
performance slow under the weight of sanctions over Ukraine and weakening
domestic demand. The problem is that Russia's latest budget requires oil prices
to average at least $100 a barrel in order to cover the government's spending
promises. The government already needs to borrow around$7 billion from foreign
investors next year and as much as 1.1 trillion rubles ($27.2 billion) from
domestic investors
The Venezuelan government leans heavily on oil revenue to
fund spending on housing projects, community organizing and other social
programs and now oil production is falling at a time when the country
desperately needs cash. Venezuela literally needs the price of oil to double to
keep its house in fiscal order.
Nigeria would be the worst-hit African oil exporter if this
drop in oil persists should persist. About 75 percent of the Nigerian
government’s revenue comes from taxes on the oil and gas sector and with much of
the government’s revenue funded by oil, funds for its capital and recurrent
spending is heavily reliant on the income from the commodity. A decrease would
be devastating.
Bahrain, with an estimated break-even price of $116.40 per
barrel next year, is already running budget deficits and would see these swell,
reports Reuters.
Oman is expected to face a break-even price of $107.50,
which could push it back to the international debt market next year for the
first time since 1997, reports Reuters.
This chart shows the price per barrel that the six most
exposed countries need to meet their national budgets. Remember, the price
Friday is a piffling $87. (Business Insider)
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