Election 2015 Analytics: 17 States Where Gen. Buhari Might Lose This Election

A commentator on political issues, Adedayo Ademuwagun, has compiled a list of states where it is likely APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, will lose the polls.

Muhammadu Buhari has undoubtedly had a phenomenal run in this election. Thanks to the APC Presidential team, He’s transformed from being a bigoted strongman to Converted democrats which seemed to be appreciated by his followers all over the nation; Believing he will bring the much needed change they so desire. therefore, election being what it is, and the geographical formation of our nation,  he might as well win this election.

However, there are some states where Buhari might lose this election based on recent history and the sociopolitical circumstances in those states. Here are 17 states where this might happen.
1. Benue
Benue is a predominantly Christian state in the middle belt. In the last election Jonathan beat Buhari in Benue and clinched over 66% of the votes. Buhari might lose there again this year. The state is run by a PDP government.

2. Kogi
Jonathan soundly beat Buhari in Kogi in 2011. He got 70% of the votes. Kogi has a significant  number of Christian population and is governed by the PDP.

3. Plateau
Jonathan defeated Buhari in Plateau by a wide margin last time. Plateau is mainly Christian and has a PDP government.

4. Abuja
This is the seat of government where President Jonathan is in charge. He grabbed over two-thirds of the votes in 2011 and won comfortably. The federal government-run things in Abuja and this could be a disadvantage to Buhari.

5. Taraba
Buhari only mustered half the number of votes Jonathan won in this state last time. It’s a mainly Christian state and the government is PDP.

6. AdamawaBuhari bowed to Jonathan here in 2011. It’s one of the two states in the northeast where Buhari lost to Jonathan. It’s a predominantly Christian state.

7. Abia
Jonathan won 99% of the votes here while Buhari won less than 1%. The east is Buhari’s worst nightmare. Abia is mainly Christian also South East state

8. Ebonyi
Again Buhari failed woefully here the last time. He didn’t even get 1,000 votes here. The PDP is in charge in Ebonyi. but with the level of uncertainty surrounding the political issue in the state, we are uncertain how the votes will go in this election, the Religion and tribal sentiment might affect Buhari's win in this state.

9. Anambra
Anambra is run by the APGA but the people are leaning towards Jonathan. Anambra is the heart of Igbo territory. A Buhari victory is unlikely here. very unlikely.

10. Enugu
Like Anambra, Enugu is the heart of Igbo territory. Jonathan neatly beat Buhari here last time. The general didn’t get 0.5% of the votes here. The people are likely going to vote Jonathan. It’s a PDP state.

11. Bayelsa
A Buhari win in Bayelsa will be a complete miracle. This is Jonathan’s home. He swept virtually all the votes here last time. It may not happen like that again this month, but surely his people will get behind him.

12. Delta
This state is strongly PDP and more likely to vote Jonathan than Buhari. Jonathan won over 98% of the votes here in 2011. Buhari hardly commands any following in this state.

13. Edo
Governor Oshiomhole’s popularity has dwindled in the past few years and so even though the state government is run by Buhari’s party, it’s not certain that the general would take the prize here. But it’s possible.

14. Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom voted resoundingly for Jonathan in 2011 and it’s a PDP state. Buhari will have a hard time taking this state.

15. Cross Rivers
Cross Rivers has a PDP government. Buhari lost to Jonathan here in the previous election. Jonathan is more likely to win here despite everything.

16. Ekiti
Ekiti is one of two states in the west controlled by the PDP. The governor is chiefly behind Jonathan and he’s got a huge grassroots following. He’s a man of the people. He’s capable of swaying his people.

17. Ondo
Ondo is the other state in the west controlled by the PDP. Like Governor Fayose of Ekiti, Ondo governor Mimiko also has a strong grassroots following and is backing Jonathan. But maybe Buhari can surmount the challenge and snatch a win in this state.



At the end of the day any candidate that is able to win 25% of total votes cast in all the geo-political region is riding to Aso Rock.