OPINION: Will Jonathan Defeat Buhari In The East Again?

No doubt, Muhammadu Buhari’s profile continues to soar across the country with nearly every incident that’s happened in the buildup so far.

But is Buhari’s victory assured? Naij.com Political Expert, Adedayo Ademuwagun explores this fact and discusses what some Nigerians might not be aware of concerning incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan’s popularity.
There’s one region that’s perhaps going to be a problem for the Muhammadu Buhari when the election comes on March 28. That region is the southeast.

President Goodluck Jonathan beat Buhari in most of the geopolitical zones in the last election. Buhari scarcely got 2% of the votes in any of the five states in the southeast, but Jonathan gained more than 97% of the votes in each of the states and a lot of people there still back him today.

Many people in the east don’t support the APC nor Buhari because they think of the APC as a Yoruba party and because of the history between the Igbos and the north, where Buhari comes from.

The APC controls the government in four of the six Yoruba states and the west is effectively the party’s base. The Igbos who see this as a problem are apparently concerned that the party’s control would spread to the east if it wins and that this will not be beneficial to the people. Plus the Igbos would take it to mean that a Yoruba party is in control in the east. This is something some Igbos will resist.
Secondly, a lot of Igbos, especially elders, still feel hurt about the war and the role of the northerners in that war. The war ruined the region and impoverished a lot of the people, and the people still feel they were ripped off.

Chinedu says, “One of my aunts told me recently that we young people don’t understand what we’re getting into by supporting Buhari and ‘that Yoruba party’. But I explained to her that things have changed. It’s not 1969 anymore. The war ended a long time ago and we need to move on. It’s not progressive for us to continue to make voting decisions based on what happened in the war. That’s bigotry. We’ve got to rise above that and join the train going forward instead of dwelling on the past.”

There’s a widespread call for change across the country right now. A lot of people want a new administration to come in and they think Buhari will run the country better than Jonathan. The APC is leading the movement for change and they’ve got popular backing. But why aren’t many Igbos in the east joining this movement?

Ijeoma says, “I’ve heard some of my people say they’ll rather continue with this government than vote for the opposition because they think voting for the APC or Buhari isn’t in our best interest. They admit the current administration hasn’t done well enough, but they say they’ll stick with it anyway.”

The contest right now is between the north and the south with the west acting as the power broker. It looks like the east is standing in as the spoiler.  The east doesn’t seem to have a strong political leadership presently. The APGA is a party divided against itself and it controls only two states in the region. Besides, many of the most influential Igbo leaders are in the APC camp. So it’s a tough one for the Igbos now as they aim to get their shot at the presidency in the near future. Our country has never had an Igbo president since Azikiwe.

Jonathan will have the Igbos believe he’s one of them. He tries to connect with them by reminding them that one of his names is Azikiwe and that’s he’s their son. Besides, his wife is Igbo. But some Igbos aren’t persuaded this time.

Uche says, “It’s only when elections are coming that he starts to tell Igbos he’s Azikiwe. It’s not even part of his official name. He’s officially Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. So he should stop using Azikiwe to appeal to us.”

Jonathan got about 5 million votes in the east in the last election, which was over 20% of the total votes cast for him nationwide. But he got only about 2.5 million votes in the west. The votes from the east helped him to win the election.

He really has to repeat that performance in the east in this election, because this time the west is strongly allied with the north and is the stronghold of the APC, Buhari’s party. So clearly the west is leaning towards Buhari and Jonathan can almost certainly not win the majority in the north. This is why winning in the east is more important to Jonathan now than ever.

Buhari got only a handful of votes in the east in the last election. He got a mere 20,000 votes in the whole region where his current opponent got 5 million votes. So this time he needs to do more. This means even if he gets a hundred million votes in the north where’s he’s most popular, he still won’t win the election because the constitution says a candidate has to score at least 25% of the votes in every state in order to be president.

This is why Buhari needs to beef up his support in the east. He needs to get at least 25% in each of the five states there or he can’t be president. This won’t be easy for him and it won’t be easy for Jonathan. But it’s possible.